The hottest electrolytic aluminum remains at a hig

Electrolytic aluminum continued to be at a high level, and aluminum prices remained weak in the short term.

after entering November, due to the fall in alumina prices and the large production restriction in the heating season, which led to the lower than expected rise in the main business revenue of all industries, domestic aluminum prices fell significantly, down more than 10%. Due to the continuous high inventory of aluminum ingots, the weak supply and demand in the electrolytic aluminum market, and the aluminum oxide price is easy to fall but difficult to rise, we believe that the aluminum price will still maintain a weak oscillation pattern

and the matching gap of ordinary rib is difficult to adjust

the impact of production restriction is limited

before the heating season, the market expects that the shutdown of alumina and electrolytic aluminum in the heating season can be 9.005 million tons and 3.39 million tons, nearly half of which belong to Weiqiao group. However, after the start of the heating season, Binzhou's peak staggering production plan for the heating season involved the electrolytic aluminum production capacity of Weiqiao group, which coincided with the illegal production capacity of Weiqiao group announced by Shandong Province in July this year. Weiqiao group did not need to shut down the electrolytic aluminum production capacity during the heating season. This news completely ignited the short selling sentiment in the market. The futures price fell all the way, and the spot price followed suit

destocking was less than expected

the data showed that as of December 4, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in seven places in China had reached 1.768 million tons, an increase of 15000 tons over last week. At present, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a historical high, and there is a great suppression on aluminum prices. From the perspective of domestic electrolytic aluminum supply, the operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants has continued to decline since June. The operating rate in November was 82.83%, the lowest level this year, which also led to the decline of electrolytic aluminum output for four consecutive months. In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 2.55 million tons, down 7.5% year-on-year and 2.3% month on month

in terms of demand, domestic aluminum production fell slightly. In October, domestic aluminum production was 5.416 million tons, an increase of 10.10% year-on-year and a decrease of 0.31% month on month. Affected by the national real estate regulation policies, the growth rate of commercial housing sales area continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 8.2% from January to October, falling to single digits for the first time in the year. In terms of automobiles, the growth rate of domestic automobile production and sales is relatively stable. The end of the year is the peak season of automobile production and sales, which has a certain pull on aluminum consumption. On the whole, domestic electrolytic aluminum is in a weak pattern of supply and demand, aluminum ingot inventory is gradually stabilizing, and the removal speed may not be as fast as market expectations

alumina may continue to weaken

the price of alumina has continued to decline recently. The price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi and Shandong has fallen by nearly 400 yuan/ton, and from the perspective of supply and demand, the price may continue to weaken. In terms of supply, the national alumina operating rate was 86.4% in November, down from the previous month. However, Inner Mongolia Xinwang aluminum, Yunnan Wenshan aluminum, Shanxi Liulin Senze and other 1.7 million tons of new alumina production capacity basically entered the production stage, and the later alumina supply pressure should not be underestimated

in terms of demand, the limited production of electrolytic aluminum plants in Henan and Shanxi has reduced the demand for alumina, and the price of electrolytic aluminum has fallen sharply. Most electrolytic aluminum plants have made losses and began to purchase alumina at a reduced price. In addition, the prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda fell slightly, and the total investment of 600million yuan moved down the cost of alumina. It is expected that alumina prices will continue to weaken in the future

according to the calculation, the limited production of prebaked anode in the heating season will reach 1.01 million tons. Compared with the limited production of aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum, the current domestic carbon production enterprises' implementation of limited production is relatively strict. Most aluminum anode enterprises are in place according to the regulations, and the supply of prebaked anode continues to be tight

according to the report, Henan Province has implemented the "strictest" ten pollution control measures in history. Among them, 14 carbon production enterprises with limited production in the early stage are required to stop production, involving a production capacity of 1.907 million tons/year. If the limited production capacity is finally required to be shut down, the monthly supply of aluminum prebaked anode in the region will be reduced by about 72000 tons, which will have a great impact on the production of local electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and the supply shortage pattern of domestic prebaked anode market may be further aggravated. The shortage of prebaked anode supply will be transmitted to the electrolytic aluminum end, limiting the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity

on the whole, under the influence of the continuous high inventory of electrolytic aluminum, the weakness of both supply and demand, and the continued low price of alumina, the aluminum price will remain weak in the short term. In the future, we need to pay attention to the supply of prebaked anodes. If the supply gap of carbon anodes is too large, aluminum prices will stabilize and rebound